Weighted-Average Methodologies for Evaluating Bar Examination Passage Rates

James Ming Chen, Weighted-Average Methodologies for Evaluating Bar Examination Passage Rates, available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2532800:

There are few truly “national” law schools in the United States. Most American law schools in the United States have a “dominant” state bar. A greater number of the graduates of nearly any law school take the bar examination administered by one state than any other bar examination. The American Bar Association and U.S. News and World Report's law school rankings rely on bar passage rates for the single largest cohort within any school’s graduating class. But the modal passage rate is misleading as a measure of any one school’s overall bar passage rates. The modal passage rate also fails to facilitate direct comparisons of bar examination performance at different schools.

To evaluate the overall bar examination performance of the graduates of any law school, I propose the use of weighted-average methodologies. Ideally, we should be able to measure, by use of weighted averages, each school’s bar passage z-score. Since the data needed to conduct proper standard scoring is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to procure, I propose a simplified weighted-average methodology. The weighted average of school-specific bar passage rates by jurisdiction, minus the weighted average of passage rates from all jurisdictions where its graduates, enables us to evaluate each school's bar exam performance, relative to the bar passage rate in its modal state, and relative to the weighted average bar passage rate across the entire United States.

In the interest of completeness, I propose two other methodologies. One of those methodologies is based on ratios, in emulation of U.S. News and World Report’s law school rankings. The other is based on what I consider a reasonable parametric estimate of standard deviations in state-wide bar passage rates weighted by school, through which we can estimate z-scores for bar exam passage rates for all states and all schools.

Teaching law, without a care in this world

Titian, Girolamo and Cardinal Marco Corner Investing Marco, Abbot of Carrara, with His Benefice (ca. 1520)

As the legal academy debates tenure, Fortune magazine takes notice:

When businesses run into trouble, managers move to reduce salaries and expenditures. If only it were that simple for the multimillion-dollar law school industry, which is up against the wall trying to balance plummeting budgets while maintaining employees' academic freedom.

Law school deans' cost-cutting efforts are colliding with decades of strong job protections — short of incompetence or financial emergency — that have been granted to full-time professors. The academic ranks let out a collective sigh when the American Bar Association decided to examine whether to jettison or curb the tenure system.

It didn't take long for some 600 tenured law professors to warn that unpopular views would be stifled if tenure were diminished and have urged that any changes to the system be scotched. Many professors fear being pushed aside for cheaper, less experienced replacements.

Law school deans, meanwhile, have been remarkably silent. . . .

Self-Adjusting Weighted Averages in Standard Scoring

Herewith a methods paper for the benefit of law professors and other university instructors who seek a sensible alternative to all-or-nothing final exams:

James Ming Chen, Self-Adjusting Weighted Averages in Standard Scoring, available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2397637.

Like many of their counterparts in university teaching, law professors routinely rely on all-or-nothing final examinations. But all-or-nothing final exams put enormous pressure on students, who often labor for months with no meaningful feedback on their mastery of the material.

One alternative to the all-or-nothing final exam consists of administering some sort of initial graded assignment. Assigning a relatively modest weight to the initial assignment maintains the primacy of the comprehensive final exam. To further minimize the pressure that accompanies the initial assignment, I propose an algorithm for adjusting the weight of the grade on the initial assignment so that students who boost their performance by the time of the final exam will benefit from their improvement. By the same token, students who do well on the initial assignment may wish to “lock in” some of the benefit of that performance as a hedge against declining performance on the final exam.

The method for self-adjusting weighted averages described in this paper achieves both of those objectives. It does so in strictly parametric terms, thereby removing guesswork and potential capriciousness in grading decisions. By using the standard logistic function to adjust the relative weight of z-scores, the method prescribed in this paper preserves the symmetry inherent in the presumptively elliptical distribution of grades.

The secret underlying this methods paper, such as it is, involves the application of the standard logistic curve to the computation of weighted arithmetic means.

Cnidarians and academic life

O cnidarians! Cnidaria are the phylum of invertebrates including jellyfish, coral, and hydroids. They lack spine, but they sting. Their name is derived from the Greek word κνίδη, which means nettle. Many cnidarians — namely, those in subphylum Anthozoa — are sessile. Even the free-swimming Medusozoa, which subphylum includes jellyfishes, are rather limited in their locomotive power. The relevance of cnidarians to university life is left as an exercise for the reader.

Although this post arguably belongs in Biolaw rather than MoneyLaw, a wonderful New York Times video prompted me to post it here. Glaucus atlanticus, a nudibranch, enthusiastically and safely feeds off the infamous Portuguese man o' war. This little sea slug's ingenuity is well worth the three minutes needed to watch the video. May all of us who toil in acadème be inspired by the example of Glaucus atlanticus. Though cnidarians prevail throughout this vast ocean, there are ways to leverage their venom into defenses of our own and, indeed, to thrive on a diet of stinging nematocysts. Bon appetit!